Strong storms possible in Minneapolis forecast this afternoon
The forecast is today in the Twin Cities is generally another hot and humid one, with temperatures held in check due to clouds and storm chances. We have a change in the weather on the way, and that could help spark some stronger storms later this afternoon.
Here’s the severe weather risk, published by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center:
In Minneapolis, we’re under the “Slight Risk” zone for severe weather. That means you have a 15% chance of a severe storm forming within 25 miles of a point (say, Minneapolis). That’s not too high, but it’s there due to the ingredients in the atmosphere and cooler air moving in.
Farther south, in south-central Minnesota, you can see an enhanced risk zone, which is about a 30% chance of a severe storm forming within 25 miles of a point. We’ll talk more about future radar in a moment.
First, here’s a look at your Minneapolis 7 day forecast (and St. Paul 7 day forecast):
Let’s jump into the thunderstorm discussion. I’ll start by saying it’s not terribly likely that we’ll see those strong thunderstorms this afternoon – but it’s possible. Between about 2-3 p.m. we’ll see a wave of storm energy pass through eastern Minnesota.
Here it is on the map:
So how does that translate into real life? That depends on the ingredients in the atmosphere. We know there’ll be heat and humidity, so we’ll have to watch this.
Here’s what the computer models envision the future radar to be at about this time:
So that’s the first chance of storms, the next wave comes later on in the evening, as another wave of storm energy passes through Minnesota:
Then, the grand finale (sort of) comes overnight tonight into early Sunday, as that’ll be the “likely” time for us to get thunderstorms:
By Sunday morning it’ll be rain-cooled and humid, but definitely much more comfortable – temperatures in the lower 70s. We’ll watch a few possible lingering showers, however, in the morning:
After that we’ll clear up a bit, but stay moderate for Sunday. Looking ahead, we’ll warm up quickly as we start off next week, with temperatures in the 90s for 4th of July festivities and isolated storm chances. Stay tuned!
Follow Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer on Twitter. Aaron is a meteorologist who lives in Minneapolis, is on the Midtown Greenway Coalition's board of directors, and is the digital communications and social media associate for the nonprofit Avivo in Minneapolis. Deep down he's a weather geek and has a degree in Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences from UW-Madison to prove it. He's spent time working at TV stations in Wyoming, South Dakota, and Iowa prior to arriving in Minneapolis to work for WeatherNation and now forecasting for MinnyApple. His favorite weather career moment came while storm chasing for his Iowa station (he went on 40+ storm chases during that time), when he saw a mile-wide EF-4 rated tornado.